Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
